India's soybean output in 2010 is likely to rise 4.2% to 10.13 million metric tons as good rains are expected to increase the yield, the Soybean Processors Association of India said Thursday.
The country produced about 9.72 million tons of soybean in 2009, it said in a statement.
The soybean yield is likely to rise to 1,089 kilograms per hectare in 2010 from 1,006 kg/hectare last year, the trade body said.
India's monsoon rains have been 2% above average so far this season, according to the state-run India Meteorological Department. The June-September monsoon season brings about 70% of India's annual rains and is crucial for summer-sown crops.
Soybean output in Madhya Pradesh, the biggest producing state, is likely to rise 11% to 6.1 million tons due to a rise in area under cultivation and a higher yield.
Total area under soybean in Madhya Pradesh is estimated to have risen to 5.5 million hectares in 2010 from 5.3 million hectares last year, the trade body said.
In Maharashtra, the second biggest producer, output is likely to fall to 2.8 million tons from about 3 million tons last year, it added.
Higher output estimates may increase the exports of soymeal and pressurize local prices, said Mehul Agrawal, analyst with Sharekhan Commodities.
The country's soymeal exports had been falling over the past few months as local prices were higher than international rates. However, exports are improving as global prices have now risen sharper than local prices.
Total soymeal exports in the marketing year starting Oct. 1 are likely to touch 4 million tons, Agrawal said.
India is estimated to export about 2.5 million tons of soymeal in 2009-10, according to industry officials.