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SIOUX FALLS (AP) — The U.S. Agriculture Department says South Dakota's corn, sunflower, soybean and wheat prices were up in September.
The corn price, at $3.89, was up 61 cents from August and up 91 cents from last year.
The spring wheat price of at $6.53 was 72 cents higher than August and $1.45 higher than last year. The September soybean price of $9.65, was 6 cents higher than August and 49 cents higher than last year.
The preliminary winter wheat price of $5.89 was up 75 cents from August and up $1.28 from last September.
The preliminary all sunflower price, at $16.40, was up $1.20 from August and up $3.80 from last year.
Preliminary prices for calves were up, while barrows and gilts were down.
Australia 2010-11 Wheat Crop Forecast Raised To 25.1 Million Tons
Australia has revised up its official winter and summer crop production forecasts sharply, following average to above-average rainfall in the Eastern Australia province in recent months. Including substantially higher production of wheat, the bigger crop could raise the amount available for exports in the coming year.
Combined with sharply higher global grain prices, this is expected to add billions of dollars to the country's export revenue, and should ensure a bumper year for Eastern Australian growers and suppliers of rural merchandise and services such as fertilizers and export logistics.
Australia's wheat production in the crop year ending March 31 will jump to 25.1 million metric tons, a 14% rise from a June estimate and a 16% jump from the 21.7 million tons produced in 2009-10, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics said in a quarterly crop report Tuesday. That represents a 36% jump from a five-year annual average.
China Downplays Grain Imports, But Effects Could Be Seismic
Top Chinese economic officials have in recent weeks issued a string of assurances about China's grain self-sufficiency, downplaying a surge in grain imports this year that could portend a potentially seismic shift in the global grain trade.
Because of China's economic size, such a change, even by small degrees, could mean millions of tons of grains diverted to the Asian giant, setting off far-reaching changes in global shipping and grain production trends.
The latest assurances, reinforcing those from other senior government officials, came Tuesday from Zhang Xiaogang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planning agency.
"Apart from soybeans, imports of wheat, corn and rice, among other grains, have been small, not even 1% of the country's domestic output," the state-run Xinhua news agency quoted Zhang as saying at the World Economic Forum "Summer Davos" forum in Tianjin.
"Domestic grain prices basically won't be affected by the global market," he said.
In fact, China's grain imports have risen sharply this year.
Official data for the first seven months showed wheat imports at 1 million metric tons, double the level seen in the same period a year earlier. August data won't be released until next week. Over the same period, corn imports have risen nearly 62 times to 281,971 tons. Rice is up 45%.
Additionally, customs data understate import levels by including only out-of-quota shipment volumes, analysts say. So far this year, corn imports from the U.S. have in fact exceeded 1 million tons.
Despite the potential impact of the rise in import numbers, however, the trend may not be immediately visible in prices.
China's grain reserves are well above the global safety standard of 18%, "adding strength to (China's) ability to control grain prices," Zhang said.
The government uses its grain reserves, the world's largest, to buffer domestic grain market volatility, and has so far succeeded in staving off a series of corn, wheat and other food price rallies this year.
China doesn't officially disclose its grain reserve levels, but the stockpiles are estimated at 45% of output levels.
Abare's wheat forecast is above those of other analysts, which have been mostly estimated the crop in a 22 million to 23 million tons range, though Profarmer Australia last week predicted a crop of 24 million tons.
Australia is a major global supplier of wheat with a domestic consumption of only around 7 million tons, leaving the rest of the produce usually available for exports.
Abare said the expected increase in wheat production will underpin higher exports in the marketing year that begins Oct. 1. Exports are expected to rise 21% on year to 18.4 million tons, from an estimated 15.2 million tons this marketing year and an actual 14.7 million tons in 2008-09.
Total output of winter crops this year now is estimated at 40.7 million tons, surging 16% from the 35.2 million tons produced last year.
"Recent rains have added to one of the best starts to a winter cropping season in several years, and significantly boosted the yield potential of the winter crop leading into the crucial spring phase before harvest," Abare Deputy Executive Director Paul Morris said in a statement.
"New South Wales has the prospect of achieving some of the highest yields in ten years and, combined with a high area cropped, is expected to drive the increase in national production," Morris said.
An upgrade to the production forecast for eastern states is expected to more than offset a downward revision for Western Australia, where winter crop production is now expected to be the lowest since the 2006-07 drought, Abare said.
"If we're talking 25.1" million tons of wheat, that would be the third biggest crop on record, said Russell Amery, President of the grains section of lobby group Victorian Farmers' Federation.
India Likely To Aim For Record Wheat Output - Official
India will likely aim for a record wheat output of 82 million metric tons this crop year through June 2011, helped by good rainfall and water reserves climbing above the 10-year average, a senior farm ministry official said Tuesday.
India--the world's second-largest wheat grower--typically sets an output target each year, which shapes its policies such as supply of cheap seeds, fertilizers and the government's procurement price for the grain.
Late rains helped India reap a record harvest of 80.71 million tons in the crop year through June 2010, but this created storage problems. The situation may worsen with increased crop yields in 2010-11.
The government aims to deal with the problem by raising warehouse capacity in collaboration with private companies, but it will take at least three-four years to be implemented fully.
A rise in output may encourage the government to lift a three-year ban on wheat exports when it reviews the decision later in 2010.
Higher production may also ease food inflation, which had accelerated to the double-digit level after a drought last year, and help the government implement a proposed law to supply grains at a fraction of cost to the poor.
"Our main focus this rabi (winter) season would be to increase yields. We will supply adequate seeds and fertilizers before the planting begins [in October-November]," the ministry official, who didn't want to be identified, told Dow Jones Newswires.
The government will encourage farmers to use high-yielding seeds and follow good farm practices such as timely sowing and fertilizer usage to raise crop productivity, the official said.
Last week, Agriculture Secretary P.K. Basu said water levels in India's reservoirs were 136% more than a year before and 102% of the 10-year average. Higher water levels at reservoirs will likely help winter crops.
The monsoon season, which brings most of India's rains, usually runs from June to September and winter crops are mostly dependent on water reserves. Good showers this year have improved soil moisture in the country's farmlands, which were parched following the worst drought in nearly four decades in 2009.
The economic losses caused by the deadly flood-the worst in Pakistan's history in almost all four provinces is yet to nail down. Significant losses are there for both people and the trembling Government.
Dr Salman Shah, Former federal Finance Minister, estimates that costs of rehabilitation of the flood-affected population and reconstruction of damaged infrastructure in different parts of the country could be in the range of $ 4 - 5 billion. Another economist put the figure between $ 3.5 and 4 billion. These losses are enormous when seen in the context of cumulative damages of about $ 6.5 billion in 14 floods since 1956.
According to Shahid Javid Burki, another former Finance Minister and ex senior Vice President of the World Bank, “we should get ready for another poor year for the economy, in the terms of the rate of the growth in the national product, pace of job creation and inter-personal and inter-regional income distribution. The government’s prediction that GDP in 2010-11 would increase by 4.1% now seems extremely optimistic. Given some of the shocks the economy has received in last few days, it appears that the national product will not increase by more than 2.5 to 2.8% this year. This will be about the same as the revised rate of growth in 2009-10. If that came about, Pakistan’s current economic expansion will be less than one half that of Bangladesh and one third that of India. Pakistan today is South Asia’s “sickest” economy and will remain that way unless the policy makers move decisively”.
Agriculture knockout
According to the spokesman of the World Food Programme, Amjad Jamal, “At least 1.4 million acres of crops were destroyed in Punjab. Many more crops were destroyed in North West and Sindh. The flooding has caused massive damage to crops and also to the reserves that people had in their houses. Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa was a ‘food insecure’ province even before the floods, and now in a lot of areas, people can’t afford even one meal a day”.
Damages, on the one hand, are likely to affect raw material supplies to the downstream industry that contributes to the export sector and, on the other hand, reduce the demand for industrial products like fertilizers, tractors, pesticides and other agriculture implements. And all this comes at a time when agricultural productivity has been falling over the years.
If we include the figures of Sindh and Khyber province, the total goes up to more than 2 million acres. This is massive damage. Sugar cane, rice and cotton crops have been badly damaged. Agriculture experts are saying that farm production in Pakistan, Asia’s third-largest grower of wheat and the fourth biggest producer of cotton, may decline by 20 to 30% because of this damage. The losses to agriculture and livestock would have a spill over effect on industry and commercial activities to a great extent. This is because agriculture continues to play a central role in the national economy. Accounting for over 21% of GDP, agriculture remains by far the largest employer, engaging 45% of the country’s labour force.
As the flooding has been widespread, the damages to cotton crops may not be verifiable at this stage. Cotton, being a non-food cash crop, contributes significantly to foreign exchange earnings. It accounts for 8.6% of the value of agriculture and about 1.8% of GDP.
Sugar cane is a major crop, which is an essential item for industries like sugar mills, chipboard and paper. Its share in the value of agriculture and GDP is 3.6% and 0.8% respectively. Another cash crop, rice, is one of the main export items. It accounts for 6.4% of agriculture and 1.4% of GDP. High quality rice serves domestic demand and earns $2billion in exports every year.
Mostly small cities and towns surrounded by the villages have been affected. The big chunk of the economies of these cities and towns depend on the rural population. The rural population depends on agriculture for its economic survival. There are hardly any big industries in the affected areas. There are small industries which are also agricultural based and depend on agriculture for raw material. The economy of South Punjab largely depends on Cotton and wheat crops and mango orchards. The rural economy of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa depends mostly on wheat and maize crops and also produces a large quantity of high quality fruits and vegetables. The vegetables have completely been wiped out and big damage done to the fruit orchards. The standing waters in the orchards are causing further damage to them.
The canal irrigation system has also been affected and water for irrigation might not be available to the farmers in many areas for the next crop.
Small farmers suffer the most
The affected areas of South Punjab and Sindh are dominated by the feudal lords, who own more than 80% of the irrigated land. Small farmers and peasants make up the majority in the population. Some work as daily wage labourers in the nearby cities and towns. A majority of the workers either work as public sector workers or are employed in the agriculture-related small industries.
The small farmers and peasants will suffer the most from this disaster as feudal lords and big farmers will transfer the burden of disaster onto the shoulders of peasants and poor farmers. Feudal lords and big farmers have shifted their families to safe places in the cities but peasants and small farmers are suffering and facing the miseries of life because they have no means to move out of the affected areas. They have no place to go and are forced to live under the open skies. Poor people have been left with nothing and at the mercy of the state machinery for rescue and relief. They have lost their livelihoods and shelter. Now, the real problem will start for them when authorities start to the pay compensation and reconstruction money. They will be asked to provide ownership documents to get compensation for their destroyed homes and livelihoods which they can not provide because these lands belong to the feudal lords. These peasants have been working and living on those lands for generations but they do not own the lands. The destruction of crops means that they will be left without any food reserves or money for months to come. The government will offer cheap loans and other facilities to the feudal lords and big farmers, but nothing will be offered to poor peasants and small farmers. They will be left at the mercy of private money lenders and feudal lords to be fully exploited. These private money lenders and feudal lords will offer loans to these peasants and small farmers at very high interest rates. These peasants will be forced to work like slaves for feudal lords just for few thousand rupees. This disaster will further impoverish the hundreds of thousands of already extremely poor peasants and farmers.[DAWN]
