Agroinformatics is a leading provider of news, articles, information and research reports on numerous areas like Agriculture & Commodities, ICT4D, E-Government, Science & Technology.
Jonathan Weisman, The Wall Street Journal’s White House reporter, is traveling with U.S. President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama during their three-day India visit. Here is his reporting from Mr. Obama’s visit on agricultural innovations in Mumbai. >>>>>> More
The cotton harvest in India, the second-biggest producer and shipper, may be less than forecast if monsoon rains last longer than normal in main growing regions, according to the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry.
Production in the year from Oct. 1 may be less than the 32.55 million bales estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board last month, Confederation Vice Chairman Prem Malik said in a phone interview. Output this year is estimated at 29.5 million bales, according to the board. An Indian bale weighs 170 kilograms.
The missed forecast may further tighten global supplies, stoking prices that have surged to the highest level in 15 years on slumping inventories and damage to the crop in China, the largest producer. U.S. mills have been “panic” buying, according to brokerage Varner Bros. in Cleveland, Mississippi.
“If the rains persist, then definitely it’s going to affect the crop and there could be a possibility of damage,” Malik said from Mumbai yesterday. “The plants will not get the sunlight,” Malik said.
Cotton is the best performer over the past year on the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index, surging 47 percent. The most-active contract, for delivery in December, advanced as much 1.1 percent to 96.81 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York today, the highest price since June 1995.
Export Plan
Lower-than-forecast output may hurt India’s plan to export as much as 5.5 million, 170 kilogram bales in the year from Oct. 1. Global inventories will fall to 45.4 million, 218 kilogram bales in the 12 months to July 31, the lowest level in 14 years, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data on Sept. 10.
The Indian “textile industry will be stalled because the availability of raw material is not there,” said Malik. “Domestic prices are bound to be strong as arrival of cotton is not there because of rains.”
India’s monsoon rains, the main source of irrigation for the nation’s 235 million farmers, normally draw to an end from September, the last month of a four-month season. Still, so far this September, rains are 122 percent of the 50-year average and clouds will begin to withdraw only by the end the month, the Indian Meteorological Department said on Sept. 14.
In the western state of Gujarat, the nation’s biggest cotton producer, rains were 54 percent above normal between June 1 and Sept. 15, according to the weather office. In Maharashtra, the second-largest grower, rains have been 25 percent more than average, it said.
‘In a Panic’
Rogers Varner, president of Varner Bros. in Cleveland, said yesterday that U.S. mills “have been in a panic” seeking supplies. “The higher the price goes, the more afraid the mills get and the more buying that they’re doing,” Varner said.
Cotton futures may surge to $1.25 a pound by January as supplies dwindle, O.A. Cleveland, a professor emeritus in agricultural economics at Mississippi State University, said on Sept. 14. Prices may reach as much as $1.05 within six weeks because supplies are tight and demand is increasing, John Flanagan, president of Flanagan Trading Corp., said Sept. 15.
India will limit cotton exports to 5.5 million bales in the season from Oct. 1, with a “prohibitive” duty to be imposed on shipments above that level, Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar said on Sept. 4. Textile Secretary Rita Menon said on Sept. 14 India plans to delay registration of export contracts by two weeks until Oct. 1. Exports this year may be 8.3 million bales.
The cotton crop in China is in worse condition this year than in 2009 after low temperatures and prolonged rains delayed planting and crop development, the Xinhua News Agency said Sept. 11, citing Ma Shuping, deputy director of planting at the Ministry of Agriculture. The nation will need to boost imports as the textile industry expands, Xinhua cited Ma as saying.
The USDA on Sept. 10 raised its estimate of China’s cotton imports in the 2010-2011 season to 2.776 million metric tons from last month’s forecast of 2.722 million tons as the production outlook weakened.
Australia 2010-11 Wheat Crop Forecast Raised To 25.1 Million Tons
Australia has revised up its official winter and summer crop production forecasts sharply, following average to above-average rainfall in the Eastern Australia province in recent months. Including substantially higher production of wheat, the bigger crop could raise the amount available for exports in the coming year.
Combined with sharply higher global grain prices, this is expected to add billions of dollars to the country's export revenue, and should ensure a bumper year for Eastern Australian growers and suppliers of rural merchandise and services such as fertilizers and export logistics.
Australia's wheat production in the crop year ending March 31 will jump to 25.1 million metric tons, a 14% rise from a June estimate and a 16% jump from the 21.7 million tons produced in 2009-10, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics said in a quarterly crop report Tuesday. That represents a 36% jump from a five-year annual average.
China Downplays Grain Imports, But Effects Could Be Seismic
Top Chinese economic officials have in recent weeks issued a string of assurances about China's grain self-sufficiency, downplaying a surge in grain imports this year that could portend a potentially seismic shift in the global grain trade.
Because of China's economic size, such a change, even by small degrees, could mean millions of tons of grains diverted to the Asian giant, setting off far-reaching changes in global shipping and grain production trends.
The latest assurances, reinforcing those from other senior government officials, came Tuesday from Zhang Xiaogang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planning agency.
"Apart from soybeans, imports of wheat, corn and rice, among other grains, have been small, not even 1% of the country's domestic output," the state-run Xinhua news agency quoted Zhang as saying at the World Economic Forum "Summer Davos" forum in Tianjin.
"Domestic grain prices basically won't be affected by the global market," he said.
In fact, China's grain imports have risen sharply this year.
Official data for the first seven months showed wheat imports at 1 million metric tons, double the level seen in the same period a year earlier. August data won't be released until next week. Over the same period, corn imports have risen nearly 62 times to 281,971 tons. Rice is up 45%.
Additionally, customs data understate import levels by including only out-of-quota shipment volumes, analysts say. So far this year, corn imports from the U.S. have in fact exceeded 1 million tons.
Despite the potential impact of the rise in import numbers, however, the trend may not be immediately visible in prices.
China's grain reserves are well above the global safety standard of 18%, "adding strength to (China's) ability to control grain prices," Zhang said.
The government uses its grain reserves, the world's largest, to buffer domestic grain market volatility, and has so far succeeded in staving off a series of corn, wheat and other food price rallies this year.
China doesn't officially disclose its grain reserve levels, but the stockpiles are estimated at 45% of output levels.
Abare's wheat forecast is above those of other analysts, which have been mostly estimated the crop in a 22 million to 23 million tons range, though Profarmer Australia last week predicted a crop of 24 million tons.
Australia is a major global supplier of wheat with a domestic consumption of only around 7 million tons, leaving the rest of the produce usually available for exports.
Abare said the expected increase in wheat production will underpin higher exports in the marketing year that begins Oct. 1. Exports are expected to rise 21% on year to 18.4 million tons, from an estimated 15.2 million tons this marketing year and an actual 14.7 million tons in 2008-09.
Total output of winter crops this year now is estimated at 40.7 million tons, surging 16% from the 35.2 million tons produced last year.
"Recent rains have added to one of the best starts to a winter cropping season in several years, and significantly boosted the yield potential of the winter crop leading into the crucial spring phase before harvest," Abare Deputy Executive Director Paul Morris said in a statement.
"New South Wales has the prospect of achieving some of the highest yields in ten years and, combined with a high area cropped, is expected to drive the increase in national production," Morris said.
An upgrade to the production forecast for eastern states is expected to more than offset a downward revision for Western Australia, where winter crop production is now expected to be the lowest since the 2006-07 drought, Abare said.
"If we're talking 25.1" million tons of wheat, that would be the third biggest crop on record, said Russell Amery, President of the grains section of lobby group Victorian Farmers' Federation.
India Likely To Aim For Record Wheat Output - Official
India will likely aim for a record wheat output of 82 million metric tons this crop year through June 2011, helped by good rainfall and water reserves climbing above the 10-year average, a senior farm ministry official said Tuesday.
India--the world's second-largest wheat grower--typically sets an output target each year, which shapes its policies such as supply of cheap seeds, fertilizers and the government's procurement price for the grain.
Late rains helped India reap a record harvest of 80.71 million tons in the crop year through June 2010, but this created storage problems. The situation may worsen with increased crop yields in 2010-11.
The government aims to deal with the problem by raising warehouse capacity in collaboration with private companies, but it will take at least three-four years to be implemented fully.
A rise in output may encourage the government to lift a three-year ban on wheat exports when it reviews the decision later in 2010.
Higher production may also ease food inflation, which had accelerated to the double-digit level after a drought last year, and help the government implement a proposed law to supply grains at a fraction of cost to the poor.
"Our main focus this rabi (winter) season would be to increase yields. We will supply adequate seeds and fertilizers before the planting begins [in October-November]," the ministry official, who didn't want to be identified, told Dow Jones Newswires.
The government will encourage farmers to use high-yielding seeds and follow good farm practices such as timely sowing and fertilizer usage to raise crop productivity, the official said.
Last week, Agriculture Secretary P.K. Basu said water levels in India's reservoirs were 136% more than a year before and 102% of the 10-year average. Higher water levels at reservoirs will likely help winter crops.
The monsoon season, which brings most of India's rains, usually runs from June to September and winter crops are mostly dependent on water reserves. Good showers this year have improved soil moisture in the country's farmlands, which were parched following the worst drought in nearly four decades in 2009.
Maximum calls from Shivpuri and Shajapur, Tribal-dominated districts also took interest, Senior technical specialists help daily for 12 hours
Bhopal, September 11, 2010 (Ataullah Faizan): The state-level Kisan Call Centre set up in Madhya Pradesh is first of its kind in the country and has completed two years of its existence successfully. During the last two years 3 lakh 18 thousand 106 farmers got solutions for their problems through this call centre. Their main questions pertained to agriculture and horticulture. Maximum questions were received from Shivpuri and Shajapur districts. Farmers from tribal-dominated districts – Betul, Anuppur, Singrauli and Shahdol also took great interest in the call centre to get their doubts cleared.
While dividing the questions into categories, it was found that maximum number of calls – 1 lakh 73 thousand 274 was about problems of agriculture crops. Likewise, 93,299 questions were about horticulture and 12802 were about veterinary related. The call centre received 37 thousand 731 questions about other subjects also. Farmers of Shivpuri and Shajapur showed more awareness comparing to other districts. Farmers of Shivpuri asked 25 thousand 168 questions about agriculture, 11 thousand 869 questions about horticulture, 2607 and 5860 questions pertained to other subjects. The farmers of Shajapur asked 17 thousand 162 questions about agriculture, 12 thousand 900 questions about horticulture, 1448 questions about veterinary-related problems, and 3008 questions about other subjects. Even though phone facility is less in tribal-dominated districts, several farmers from far-flung villages are interested in the Call Centre to get their problems solved. From the questions of the farmers it has come to surface that the farmers are interested in other subjects also along with agriculture and horticulture.
The Kisan Call Centre is set up by the Farmer Welfare and Agriculture Development Department of the State Government. This Call Centre was set up at the initiative of the Chief Minister Mr Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Due to the efforts of the Farmer Welfare and Agriculture Development Minister Dr. Ramkrishna Kusmaria the Centre received wide publicity. This was started two years ago. During these two years the farmers from all 50 districts of the state asked questions about their problems related to agriculture, horticulture etc through toll-free number to the specialists available in the call centre. The specialists cleared their doubts without delay. 15 subject specialists each were available in the call centre in two shifts to provide solutions to the questions of the farmers.
The Kisan Call Centre is being jointly run under National Agriculture Development Project in private-public partnership. Indian Society of Agriculture Professionals (ISAP) is sponsoring this call centre. Young agriculture scientist Dr. Suresh Motwani is the coordinator of the Centre. It is said that the Centre is proving a strong step towards agriculture development through solving problems of the farmers.
Pakistan faces a dearth of big information technology companies, prompting many dejected IT professionals with reasonable experience to think about leaving the country for a better opportunity which can match their qualifications and experience.
As soon as an IT professional attains experience of eight to ten years, he feels consumed by the need of finding a high-paying job which smaller IT companies cannot afford.
Dr Arshad Ali, DG School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, National University of Science and Technology (NUST), a top public sector university, agrees with this bitter reality.
“It is true that IT professionals face hurdles to their career growth after getting 8 to 10 years’ experience,” he said, adding the reason is an absence of big IT firms in the country which can adequately pay the experienced professionals and provide them with opportunities for further growth.
“Dearth of big IT firms is a problem which is somewhat linked with a lack of research opportunities,” he added.
“Obviously, when you do not have big companies which can pay enough, the experienced IT professionals have no choice but to leave the country and find lucrative jobs in other countries,” he said.
Few IT companies do research work in Pakistan. And those which actually do, their activity is usually not futuristic instead a majority of them undertake low-tech software development work. “Research is limited only to individuals and that need to be institutionalised,” Ali said.
On the academic front, very few universities in Pakistan are conducting specialised research, he said, adding some of the faculty members at NUST are doing research work for Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Stanford University, Caltech, Centre for European Nuclear Research, Geneva and others. In — United States, he said, IT companies grant scholarships to their employees who have an average experience of 8 to 10 years to get further education and conduct research. This helps develop their capacity to do research and pursue a long career in the relevant field of work.
President Pakistan Software Houses Association (Pasha), Jehan Ara, agrees that after some years of experience IT professionals usually say goodbye to the country and this is a strong perception in the country.
She stressed that Pakistan desperately needs more companies that can hire and provide required opportunities for experienced IT professionals.
“Every country goes through a cycle in which smaller companies grow little by little and then turn into bigger and stronger concerns,” she said. “Every country welcomes this and this is how companies will also grow in Pakistan.”
For those who seek a longer career in the IT sector, opportunities for specialisation do exist in Pakistan where a professional can stay associated with the industry for a long time.
A lot of IT professionals in search of managerial positions leave technical jobs. However, a plethora of managerial positions are also available in the IT sector where these professionals can pursue a longer career without abandoning their area of expertise, she said.
Muhammad Salman, an IT professional working in an IT firm in Karachi, said many of the professionals including him aspires for a long career in Pakistan but end up in some foreign country.
”Another IT professional, who has over 15 years of experience, partly agrees with the perception that senior IT professionals leave Pakistan owing to a less attractive local market.
“Though there is a dearth of research in IT firms and universities, it does not mean that all professionals leave the country because of this reason. But yes about one-fourth of them do move out of the country owing to the absence of big companies,” he maintained.
China, India and the Philippines are examples in Asia where you can find a lot of companies doing good business and research. Particularly in the last 20 years, a number of IT firms have set up their businesses in these countries and are doing respectable research, he added.
