FAO Food Price Index Hits 28-Month High

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization revised upward its monthly food price index to a 28-month high due to higher global prices of cereals, sugar and vegetable oils. >>>> More

Soft Commodity Technicals by Reuters

WHEAT:

SINGAPORE, Oct 21 (Reuters) – CBOT December wheat <WZ0> is technically neutral between $6.73 and $6.93, with an escape from the range needed to determine its next directional move.

Sugar Technicals from Reuters

   

SINGAPORE, Oct. 18 (Reuters) - New York sugar is expected to retrace to a range between 25.42 cents and 26.12 cents per lb as indicated by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci retracement analysis.

A five-wave completion is seen on the rise from 22.49 cents to 28.36 cents, and the current correction is expected to drive the price down to a range formed by the 38.2 percent and 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement levels.

 A bearish divergence that has formed on the RSI indicator confirms the completion of the five-wave cycle.

Resistance is at 27.80 cents, a break above which would temporarily invalid the bearish outlook.

Sugar Technicals from Reuters

SINGAPORE, Oct. 13 (Reuters) - New York sugar <SBc1> may extend its gain into a range between 28.50 cents and 29 cents per lb as a wave "5" is unfolding.

The uptrend is strong as the correction was shallow during the previous trading session, only touching a low at 26.22 cents, which is above 25.73 cents -- the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level on the rise from 23.30 cents to 27.24 cents.

A rising channel is pointing to a range between 28.50 cents and 29 cents, but caution should guide expectations, as the wave "5" is generally the most difficult to be forecast on its peak.

Support is fixed at 27.10 cents, a fall below which would possibly trigger a further retracement to 26 cents.

Asia Commodity Day Ahead: Commodities Soar as Crop Outlook Cut

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The following are the top stories on metals, agriculture and shipping.

ECONOMIC EVENTS, AGRICULTURE REPORTS:

TOP STORIES:

Commodities Soar as Crop Forecasts Cut, U.S. May Buy More Debt

Commodity prices surged to the highest level in almost two years after the U.S. government cut its crop-supply forecasts and the dollar slumped on speculation the Federal Reserve will buy more debt to revive the economy.

COMMODITY EXCLUSIVES:

Gold May Jump to $2,000 Amid Currency ‘Battle’: Chart of Day

Gold futures may surge 50 percent to $2,000 an ounce next year as central banks ramp up stimulus programs aimed at propping up the economy, said Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital in New York.

Feinberg’s Firm Paid More Than $2.5 Million for Claims (Update2)

Kenneth Feinberg and his law firm have been paid more than $2.5 million in 3 1/2 months to administer the $20 billion fund set up by BP Plc to compensate victims of its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

INDUSTRIAL METALS:

Copper Rises on Bets Fed to Boost Stimulus After U.S. Jobs Data

Copper prices rose to a 27-month high after a larger-than- forecast cut in U.S. jobs spurred speculation that the Federal Reserve will take more steps to bolster the economy, weighing on the dollar.

Alcoa Says Chinese Demand Drives Growth in Aluminum Consumption

Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported profit that beat analysts’ estimates and said growing Chinese demand will help boost global use by 13 percent this year.

MINING:

Trapped Miners’ Ordeal Nears End in Chile Rescue (Update1)

Chile’s government is making final preparations to rescue 33 miners as the lead drill advances to less than 50 meters (164 feet) from where they are trapped almost half a mile underground.

Hydro Studies Acquisitions in Brazil, Argentina After Vale Deal

Norsk Hydro ASA, Europe’s third-largest aluminum maker, is considering expansion in Brazil and Argentina after it completes the purchase of $4.9 billion of assets from Vale SA.

PRECIOUS METALS:

Gold Futures Advance as Dollar Drops After U.S. Jobs Report

Gold futures rose, rebounding from the biggest drop since July, as the dollar’s slump boosted the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative asset.

AGRICULTURE:

Grain Prices Surge on U.S. Supply Cuts, Boosting Food Costs

Grain and oilseed prices rose the most allowed by the Chicago Board of Trade after the U.S. government said supplies will be smaller than forecast last month, increasing the cost of producing food and fuel.

World Wheat-Inventory Estimate Cut on U.S. Output Drop (Update2)

Global wheat inventories will be smaller than forecast a month ago because of lower U.S. production, the Department of Agriculture said. Grain futures in Chicago surged 9.1 percent.

USDA Cuts Corn Estimate 3.8% as Adverse Weather Trims Yields

The U.S. corn crop will be 3.8 percent smaller than forecast a month ago, the government said, after flooding in June and hot, dry weather in August cut Midwest yields.

Cotton Surges to 15-Year High, Orange Juice Rises on USDA Data

Cotton futures jumped to a 15-year high after the U.S. Department of Agriculture boosted a forecast for global demand. Orange-juice prices also climbed.

Sugar Jumps to Eight-Month High on Demand; Coffee, Cocoa Gain

Sugar jumped to the highest price in almost eight months on concern that demand will outstrip supplies after adverse weather damaged crops in Brazil, the world’s biggest producer. Coffee and cocoa also climbed.

SHIPPING:

Marseille Oil Port Strike Forces Refineries to Halt (Update1)

A 12-day-old workers strike at the French port of Marseille, expected to continue through the weekend, will force refiners in the region to start halting production, leading to motor fuel shortages.

Baltic Dry Index Has Best Week Since August on Iron Ore Ships

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity-shipping costs, had its biggest weekly gain since August as Chinese demand for iron ore strengthened.

ECONOMIES:

U.S. Economy: Payrolls Decline More Than Forecast (Update2)

The U.S. lost more jobs than forecast in September as local governments fired teachers and other workers in response to declining tax revenue.

Wholesale Inventories in U.S. Rose 0.8% in August (Update1)

Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose more than forecast in August as companies kept stockpiles in line with demand.

OTHER MARKETS:

Dow Tops 11,000, Treasuries Rise on Fed Easing Bets; Crops Jump

Stocks rallied, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 11,000 for the first time since the May 6 crash, while Treasuries climbed and the dollar slipped as a decrease in U.S. jobs bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will buy more debt to stimulate the economy. Corn, soybeans and wheat surged on concern that supply is dwindling.

Dollar Falls Below 82 Yen for First Time Since 1995 on Job Cuts

The dollar dropped below 82 yen for the first time in 15 years as the U.S. payrolls report showed employers cut more jobs last month than economists forecast, heightening concern the economic recovery is stalling.

Crude Oil Increases After U.S. Loses More Jobs Than Forecast

Crude oil climbed above $82 a barrel amid speculation the Federal Reserve will buy more debt to stimulate the economy after a government report showed the U.S. lost more jobs than forecast in September.

SPORTS:

Premier League Approves Red Sox’s John Henry to Buy Liverpool

Boston Red Sox owners John W. Henry and Tom Werner have been cleared by the Premier League to complete their 300- million-pound ($478 million) purchase of England’s most successful soccer team, Liverpool.

--Editors: Millie Munshi, Richard Dobson.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net

India Set To Resume Sales Of Green Fuel After Two Years - Industry Officials

India is set to resume sales of gasoline blended with ethanol after a two-year gap, with sugar mills offering supplies after a sharp rise in state-fixed prices of the biofuel, industry officials said.

State-run oil companies recently accepted about 710 million liters of ethanol from local companies after inviting supplies of 1.05 billion liters, a senior official with the Indian Sugar Mills Association said.

"The supplies will probably start from the middle of next month," said the official, who didn't want to be identified.

State-run oil companies have been deluged with offers of ethanol from local sugar mills after the government revised the state-fixed price of the green fuel to INR27 per liter (0.26 gallons) from INR19.50 following a decision by India's Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs in August.

There has been almost no ethanol blending for nearly two years, despite government orders for a mandatory 5% ethanol blending with gasoline, due to a lack of availability and the low state-fixed ethanol price.

Unlike in many other countries, ethanol is produced in India from molasses, a byproduct of sugar, rather than sugarcane juice or other food crops such as corn. Over the past two years, however, many manufacturers preferred to use molasses to produce rectified spirit and industrial chemicals due to the low price of ethanol.

Cane output also fell in the world's second-largest producer due to adverse weather, which also contributed to the drop in supply. India's sugarcane output is expected to rise about 17% to 324.91 million tons in the marketing year that started Oct. 1, which will help supplies of the fuel.

"We are ready and only nitty gritties are being sorted out. Price is no more an issue," said Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of the Maharashtra Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Association. "The program (for the sale of blended fuels) is now very much on."

India's largest sugarcane-producing state, Uttar Pradesh, will supply about 310 million liters of ethanol out of the total quantity asked for by state-run oil companies. Maharashtra, the country's second-largest sugarcane-producing, state, will supply 186 million liters, sugar industry officials said.

The country launched blending of ethanol with gasoline in 2006 with the aim of cutting fuel import bills as well as increasing fuel efficiency and improving the environment, but supplies under the program remained erratic

Sugar Technicals from Reuters

SINGAPORE, Oct.7 (Reuters) - A bullish target at 24.28 cents a lb for New York sugar <SBc1> is unchanged, as it is riding on an upward wave "5".

A medium-term target is seen at 27.17 cents if the bullish trend holds.

Sugar is expected to rise above a resistance at 24 cents, the neckline of a possible inverted head-and-shoulders, which is commonly interpreted by the market technicians as a bullish reversal pattern.

A rise above 24.28 cents would extend its gain to 24.83 cents - the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level on the fall from 27.17 cents to 22.49 cents. 

A fall from the current level could be limited to 22.80 cents.

Commodity News Snapshot-Pakistan

Rs 1,000 per 40 kg wheat support price proposed

ISLAMABAD (October 06, 2010): The Task Force on Agriculture (TFA) has proposed increase in wheat support price from Rs 950 to Rs 1,000 per 40 kg for the upcoming season. A meeting of the Task Force on Agriculture, presided over by Minister for Food and Agriculture (Minfa) Nazar Muhammad Gondal, was held here on Thursday.

THE RUPEE: dollar turns soft

KARACHI (October 06, 2010): The rupee maintained its climb, gaining sharply against dollar on the currency market on Tuesday, dealers said. The rupee rose by eight paisa in relation to dollar for buying and selling at 86.12 and 86.16, they said. Some improvement in the supply of dollars helped the rupee to make sharp gains versus US currency, they said.

Phutti arrivals show 15 percent shortfall

MULTAN (October 06, 2010): The cotton crop arrivals at the ginneries across the country up to October 1, 2010 have been recorded at 2.617 million bales, showing a shortfall of 15 percent as compared to last year's 3.079 million bales. Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) Chairman Masud A Majeed, vice-chairman Shehzad Ali and chairman of ginners group Muhammad Akram said that the floods had damaged more than 2 million bales in southern Punjab and Sindh causing huge loss of about Rs 27 billion.

Spot rate eases by Rs 50/maund

KARACHI: Trading remained firm amid strong physical prices while the spot rate eased on improved supply of cottonseed, traders at the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA), said Tuesday.

The mills purchased selective lots on competitive prices while ginners withholding fine lint offered their produce on slightly higher prices, floor brokers said.

The KCA revised the spot rate downward by Rs 50 per maund to Rs 7,050 per maund while physical prices remained on the higher side above Rs 7,200 per maund, traders said.

50,000 tons of sugar: PSMA appreciates open market tender by TCP

LAHORE (October 06, 2010): Chairman Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA), Javed Kayani has appreciated the open market tender for 50,000 tons of sugar by Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP). He said that in order to keep sugar prices within reasonable limits PSMA had forewarned the government in October 2009 to import 1.2 million tons of sugar to meet with anticipated shortages but unfortunately TCP was unable to import the desired quantity.

Gold touches new high of Rs 43,000 per tola

KARACHI (October 06, 2010): Gold prices on Tuesday hit a new record high of Rs 43, 000 per tola mark after global market touched another historic level of $1337 an ounce, traders said. Gold was available for Rs 42, 500 per tola a day before and went up to a record high of Rs 43, 000 per tola. Similarly, the price of gold per 10 grams reached a fresh peak of Rs 36, 857 up from Rs 36, 428, according to traders.

International News

Oil rises after Japan cuts rates

LONDON: Oil prices rose on Tuesday, building on a week of gains after Japan announced a surprise cut in interest rates, raising expectations of further boosts for other major economies.

The Bank of Japan cut its overnight rate target to a range between zero and 0.1 percent from 0.1 percent and pledged to buy five trillion yen ($60 billion) worth of assets in an attempt to stimulate the world’s third-largest oil-consuming nation.

US crude futures for November rose more than $1 to a high of $82.58, the highest since Aug 6, before slipping back a little to trade at $82.47, up $1.00, by 1326 GMT. ICE Brent for November gained 65 cents to $83.93.

Gold hits record above $1,340/oz

* Copper at new 26-month high on easing expectations

LONDON: Gold climbed 1.8 percent, its biggest one-day rise since May 11, to record highs on Tuesday as the dollar fell versus the euro and as recent volatility in the currency markets boosted demand for the metal as a safe store of value.

Spot gold hit a high of $1,340.20 an ounce and was bid at $1,337.50 an ounce at 1549 GMT, against $1,315.20 late on Monday. US gold futures for December delivery reached a peak of $1,341.70 and were later up $21.90 at $1,338.70.

US MIDDAY: sugar gains

NEW YORK (October 06, 2010): ICE raw sugar futures rallied on technical buying early on Tuesday and moved closer to last week's seven-month high, while arabica coffee firmed, underpinned by a weakening dollar, but still well below a recent 13-year high. Cocoa was little changed in light volumes, with the focus on the start of main crop harvesting in West Africa.

Liffe sugar sharply up

LONDON (October 06, 2010): Liffe front-month, December white sugar ended $17.60 higher at $623.60 per tonne on Tuesday. Rise driven largely by technical buying, and upside could be limited by improved crop prospects in Brazil and India. Liffe second-month January robusta coffee ended $5 higher at $1,666 per tonne. Market looking to consolidate after Monday's steep fall, with the focus on expectations for an ample harvest in top producer Vietnam.

Sugar Technicals from Reuters

SINGAPORE, Oct 6 (Reuters) - New York sugar would rise to trade between 24.28 cents and 24.83 cents per lb as a bottom may have formed at Monday's low of 22.49 cents.  

A Fibonacci retracement analysis on the fall from 27.17 cents to 22.49 cents reveals a target range formed by the 38.2 percent and 50 percent levels.  

However, the upside may not be limited to 24.83 cents as a wave (5) is progressing towards the wave "3" peak at 27.17 cents, and may eventually surpass that mark.  

Support is at 23.65 cents, a fall below would be limited to 22.49 cents.

Sugar Technicals from Reuters

SINGAPORE, Oct. 5 (Reuters) - New York sugar is expected to resume an uptrend by rising into a range between 23.80 cents and 24.28 cents per lb, as a bottom could have formed at the Monday's low of 22.49 cents.

The drop from 27.17 cents is classified as a wave (4) retracement which is expected to end around the lower-degree wave "4" bottom at 23.52 cents.

But it seems the wave (4) has traveled slightly lower to 22.49 cents, close to 22.26 cents, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level on the rise from 19.23 cents to 27.17 cents.

The following rebound will first arrive at 23.80 cents, and then continue to 24.28 cents - the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level on the fall from 27.17 cents to 22.49 cents.

Support is at 23.82 cents, a fall below which will be limited to 22.26 cents. 

 

 

Commodity News Snapshot-Pakistan

  THE RUPEE: new low hit versus dollar

KARACHI (October 04, 2010): The rupee touched a new low level versus dollar at 86.26 during the week ended on October 1, 2010. On the interbank market, the rupee lost 24 paisa against dollar for buying at 86.21, and 25 paisa for selling at 86.26.

 DNA of agriculture sector shows Rs 300 billion loss: Gondal

ARTICLE (October 04, 2010): Minister for Food and Agriculture Nazar Muham-mad Gondal in an exclusive interview to Business Recorder's panel comprising Wasim Iqbal, Sohail Sarfraz, Mushtaq Ghumman and Abdul Rasheed Azad speaks a variety of issues. According to him, a preliminary Damage Needs Assessment (DNA) of agriculture sector reveals a loss of Rs 300 billion (3.4 billion dollars). He says he does not support importing raw sugar. 

Prices fell slightly on cotton market last week

KARACHI (October 04, 2010): Prices fell slightly on the cotton market last week despite the fact that supply was tight due to higher trend in the international market.

Problems at Kenyan ports: rice exporters leaving for Kenya on October 4

KARACHI (October 03, 2010): A seven member delegation of Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) is leaving for Kenya on Monday to resolve the burning issues at Kenyan Ports being faced by Pakistani rice exporters during last couple of months. The delegation led by Rafique Suleman, former vice chairman REAP would hold meetings with Kenyan authorities to resolve this issue.

International News

Gold prices extend record-breaking run; crude oil leaps higher

LONDON (October 03, 2010): Gold rocketed to record peaks this week, boosted by the weak dollar, while crude oil raced higher as supportive economic data sparked hopes of improving world-wide energy demand. Many dollar-priced raw materials won support from the struggling greenback, which makes them cheaper for buyers using stronger currencies and so tends to stimulate demand.

 

India's soyabean output likely to rise

NEW DELHI (October 03, 2010): India's soyabean output in 2010 is expected to rise 4.1 percent to 10.1 million tonnes on normal monsoon rains, a leading trade body said on Thursday. Good rains over growing areas have raised yields even though the area planted with the main summer oilseed crop fell as the soil remained too hard due to the late arrival of the rains.