Soft Commodity Technicals by Reuters

 
WHEAT
SINGAPORE, Nov 8 (Reuters) – A bullish target at $7.61-¼    for the CBOT wheat December contract has been established, as an upward wave “c” is progressing.  >>>>>>>>>>>> More

Soybean Technicals from Reuters

   

SINGAPORE, Oct. 18 (Reuters) - A bullish target at $12.26 per bushel for the CBOT soybean November futures contract has been aborted as a five-wave cycle could have been completed at the Friday high of $12.04-1/4.

A bearish target has been established at $11.42-1/4, the 38.2 percent level, as per a Fibonacci retracement analysis, on the rise from $10.42 to $12.04-1/4. 

A minor support is observed at $11.66, the 23.6 percent level, but it could be too vulnerable to hold the fall.

Resistance is at $11.90, a break above which would slightly extend its gain to $12.00.

   

EU 2010-11 Grain Output up To 275.9M Tons

European Union 2010-11 soft wheat production rose slightly to 127.9 million tons to reflect higher output from Poland, Germany and the U.K. and small cuts to southeastern EU and Baltic harvests, Strategie Grains said.

The company estimates EU soft wheat output will be 700,000 tons higher than its September estimate and down 0.9% compared with 129.1 million tons from last year.

The French forecaster says the outlook for EU wheat "remains very tight with high export demand," potential even though the U.S. remains the most competitive source for wheat given its ample wheat stocks that can be used to make up for the shortfall in Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports.

Strategie Grains expects the EU will export 18 million tons of wheat in 2010-11, up slightly from its September estimate of 17.4 million tons. The U.K. will export at a "very high level" of almost 2 million tons because it remains price competitive relative to France and southeast EU wheat origins, the firm said.

The U.K. export figure stands in contrast to the Home Grown Cereals Authority expectations for a 46% drop in U.K. wheat exports to 1.3 million tons in 2010-11.

2010-11 Intra-EU exports remained unchanged compared with the September estimate since an upward revision to Polish, Lithuanian and Denmark exports were offset by lower export expectations from the Czech Republic, France and Germany.

From a global perspective, wheat ending stocks are now forecast at a more comfortable 166 million tons, partly due to ample U.S. wheat stocks even though a severe drought in the Ukraine and Russia has crimped exports from those two countries.

Within the EU, the story is a bit different. "The supply situation remains very tight with soft wheat ending stock estimated at just 9 million tons" and no feed wheat surplus to spare, the French forecaster said.

"This situation indicates that [EU] prices will stay sustained until at least Christmas and that the decrease potential after then will be small," it added.

EU wheat prices will hinge on how tight corn supplies remain, changes to U.S. wheat prices, and 2011 world wheat production.

Strategie Grains expects 2011-12 EU planting area for soft wheat and barley to rise 3% on the year and corn to grow 4%.

Strategie Grains Thursday also revised its total grains forecast up by 1 million tons to 275.9 million tons due to a rise in barley and wheat output estimates, which largely offset a cut to maize output estimates.

"The maize harvest is progressing normally in west Europe and the southeast, but has been delayed by rains in central Europe," prompting the firm to reduce its maize output estimate downward by 400,000 tons to 55.6 million tons compared with the September estimate. 
Dow Jones Newswire

Soybean Technicals from Reuters

SINGAPORE, Oct. 14 (Reuters) - The CBOT soybean November futures contract <SX0> is expected to rise towards $12.26 per bushel as per its wave pattern and a range between $11.50-¾    and $11.88-3/4.

A wave "5" is progressing towards a medium-term target at $12.80, as pointed by an ascending trendline, while a conservative $12.26 level is considered as a 24-hour target.

Support is at $11.70, a break below which would trigger a further retracement to $11.50-3/4, the low of the range.

Argentina Soyoil Exporters View End To China Spat With Wary Eye

Argentina's soyoil exporters are cautiously optimistic that China is poised to resume its purchases of soyoil, but they are waiting to see an actual sale go through before celebrating an end to the six-month old trade dispute.

An executive at one of Argentina's leading grain and vegetable oil said he is waiting to "see it to believe it."

In April, China--the world's largest importer of the edible oil--blocked imports from Argentine--the largest exporter--citing purity standards. But many saw the move as retaliation for a host of anti-dumping duties imposed by Argentina on imported Chinese goods.

Fueling scepticism over the resumption of soyoil sales is the fact that there seems to have been no progress in resolving the underlying conflict over trade barriers. In fact, Argentina has expanded the number of Chinese products hit by anti-dumping penalties in recent months.

Despite the tension, the Chinese appear to be more concerned with their domestic food prices. China is facing high inflation and Argentine soyoil is cheaper than what it is now buying from the U.S. and Brazil, said Ricardo Baccarin, vice president at local brokerage house Panagricola.

A senior trader with a large Chinese grain buyer said Tuesday that China's government is clearing new soyoil imports from Argentina, although no purchases have taken place yet.

China's Ministry of Commerce would support the resumption of soyoil imports from Argentina as long as there are no quality concerns, said Chen Rongkai, a ministry media official.

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez celebrated the news in a twitter post on Tuesday. "If it wasn't enough, China is buying oil again," Fernandez wrote.

Agriculture Minister Julian Dominguez told state news agency Telam on Monday there were signs that China would allow shipments to resume, although a foreign ministry spokesman on Tuesday declined to comment.

A resumption of sales to China would be a boon to Argentina's farmers, who were slow to sell this season and still have significant soybean stocks remaining, Panagricola's Baccarin said.

Soybean Technicals from Reuters

SINGAPORE, Oct. 13 (Reuters) - The CBOT soybean November futures contract <SX0> is expected to break above Monday's high at $11.88-¾   per bushel and rise towards $12.26 thereafter.

A flat consolidation following a sharp rise is generally a continuation pattern before the establishment of a new rally, in the case of soybeans, so as long as it remains above $11.50-3/4, the bullish view would remain unchanged.

A fall below $11.50-¾   could confirm a double-top, and a further retracement to $11.13 will be likely, while a rise above $11.88-¾   would immediately open the way towards $12.26.

Soybean Technicals from Reuters

   

SINGAPORE, Oct. 12 (Reuters) - The CBOT soybean November futures contract could return to Monday's high at $11.88-¾   per bushel as the uptrend is still intact.

An inverted head-and-shoulders pattern is forming on the ten-minute chart, a moderate gain above $11.70 would confirm the pattern and a bullish target at $11.88-¾   would be established.

Support is at $11.60, a fall below which would signal a continuation of the retracement and would open the way towards $11.50.