Cotton Extends Rally to 15-Year High as Cold Weather Threatens China Crop

Cotton advanced for a fourth day, extending a rally to the highest price in more than 15 years as cold weather threatens the crop in China, the world’s largest user, boosting import demand and tightening global supplies.

December-delivery cotton advanced as much as 0.6 percent to 95.08 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, the highest price since June 1995. The contract traded at 95.06 cents a pound at 9:25 a.m. Singapore time.

Cotton-growing regions in central China “could turn wetter and cooler again early next week,” Telvent DTN Inc. said in a forecast yesterday. The condition of the country’s crop has deteriorated, compared with a year earlier, after low temperatures and prolonged rains delayed planting and crop development, the official Xinhua News Agency said on Sept. 11.

“There’s a concern that global supplies will tighten,” said Chung Yang Ker, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte. in Singapore. He forecast the price may rise to $1, without citing a timeframe.

Global inventories will fall to 45.4 million bales in the 12 months ending July 31, the lowest level in 14 years, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed on Sept. 10. A bale weighs 480 pounds (218 kilos).

Cotton may rise to $1.25 a pound by January as supplies dwindle, O.A. Cleveland, a professor emeritus in agricultural economics at Mississippi State University, said yesterday.

Brazil, the world’s fifth-largest exporter, cut the tariff on imports of the fiber to zero from 10 percent from October to May as domestic supplies fall short of demand, Agriculture Minister Wagner Rossi told reporters in Brasilia yesterday.

India, the world’s second-biggest grower, plans to delay registration of export contracts by two weeks until Oct. 1, Textile Secretary Rita Menon said yesterday.

The nation, estimated by the USDA to account for 18 percent of global cotton exports last season, is limiting overseas sales to 5.5 million bales in the year starting Oct. 1 and will impose “prohibitive” duties on shipments more than that amount. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore at ljavier@bloomberg.net