Govt to face loss of $130/tonne on wheat export

* Delayed decision by ECC will cause further loss to national exchequer

By Razi Syed
KARACHI: The government will suffer a loss of $130 per metric tonne on wheat export as prices of the commodity in the international market are hovering around $275 to $290 per metric tonne. >>>> More

Record crop set for better returns

Martin Roth
Be selective when investing in the agribusiness sector to avoid disappointment.

 

Rising prices, growing demand and some global shortages have combined to propel the agribusiness sector into the investment spotlight. However, despite what appear to be excellent fundamentals, a paucity of quality stocks means local investors must be selective if they wish to become involved with this theme.

Wheat Analysis from Reuters

   

SINGAPORE, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The CBOT wheat December contract <WZ0> may establish a trend soon, as the current consolidation is approaching an end.

A descending wedge may contract to a point above $6.88-1/2, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level on the rise from $6.57 to $7.39-3/4.

It is not strategically safe to assume a bullish move right now even if the bias is for a rise, as a resistance at $7.12 needs to be cleared to confirm the development of an uptrend.

   

2010 Wheat Price Trends: Frbiz Forecasts

BEIJING, /PRNewswire-Asia/ -- Frbiz.com one of China's leading B2B search platforms, forecasts 2010 wheat price trends.

Since September, with the influences of domestic demand, the wheat market basically remained steady.

Frbiz analyzes that with the autumn grains listed in the market, in October, although the wheat market will not appear to have big fluctuations, the prices are expected to remain upwardly strong.

First, when autumn grains are listed on the market, the wheat circulation will reduce.

On one hand, as most of the major farmers dedicate the main manpower and material resources to new corn harvest, detracting from winter wheat seed, which will make some areas' wheat sales stagnant, reducing list market volume.

On the other hand, trading business will gradually turn to autumn grains, wheat purchase and sale will be relatively postponed, which will lead to local area supply imbalances, spurring a slight rise.

Second, the flour is in peak season, creating purchase increases.

In recent times, flour market purchasing demand has increased; some enterprises report flour sales in September increased 30%-40% over August.

Frbiz's data shows that domestic small packing flour retail prices increased 0.2%. Among them, Jinan, Chongqing and Guangzhou prices respectively rose 1.3%, 1.2% and 0.9%, and currently the small packing flour price is the highest since 2009.

Third, national policy on rural issues supports market increases.

In recent years, the national government has paid attention to rural issues, implementing policies on the minimum purchase prices , which continue to improve the lowest purchase price level, and implementing storage measures for wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans that strengthen food market regulation and let food prices maintain a steady rising trend.

In addition, in the second half-year, all market prices for meat, eggs, garlic, green beans, vegetables and minor cereals rose, and currently Chinese market grain prices totally increased, which will spur wheat prices to increase as well.

Frbiz.com

Need to maintain wheat production, reserves emphasised

Besides achieving self-sufficiency in wheat production, Pakistan should also maintain its reserves to tackle food problems during natural calamities. This was stated by Dr Noor-ul-Islam, Director General Agriculture (Research), AARI while addressing a meeting of agricultural scientists, held to finalise Annual Research Programme of Wheat 2010-2011.

Dr Noor-Ul-Islam emphasised importance of incorporating valuable viewpoint from various quarters while finalising wheat research programme. He drew attention of agricultural scientists towards the immediate and long-term challenges for wheat production in the country.

On the occasion, Makhdoom Hussain, Director Wheat Research Institute, Faisalabad presented Annual Wheat Research Programme and informed that since 1948 to 2010, wheat production in Pakistan has increased up to 598 percent whereas its area has increased up to 129 percent, which is a great achievement.

He informed that Wheat Research Institute of Faisalabad is collaborating with foreign institutions of wheat research like CIMMYT (Mexico), ICARDA (Syria), KARI (Kenya) and other South Asian countries in developing new high yielding wheat varieties.

Elaborating more about 'Annual Wheat Research Programme', he informed that institute is evolving wheat varieties which could give higher yield under heat stress conditions. Efforts are also being made to develop drought and salt tolerant varieties, he added.

The institute's new line, resistant to UG99 disease, is in pipeline. Previously, the institute released (Lasani 2008) UG99 resistant variety. Varieties are also being screened at the institute, which could give higher yield under low and high temperatures.

Makhdoom said research work would also be done to determine optimum sowing time and seed rate for different wheat varieties. Effect of micro-nutrients on wheat yield would also be studied in proposed research programme. Scientists offered various suggestions in improving research programme and said that effect of climatic changes should also be studied and a wheat variety should be developed which should possess traits like heat, drought and salt tolerance.

Speaking on the occasion, Dr Abdul Majid, representative ICARDA appreciated co-operation among scientists of agricultural research institutions in preparing Annual Wheat Research Programme and hoped that through this co-operation, quality of wheat research work would considerably be improved. Prominent wheat breeders, agronomists and plant pathologists from all four provinces of the country attended the meeting.-PR

Copyright Business Recorder, 2010

Commodity News Snapshot-Pakistan

Government decides to waive 25 percent regulatory duty on raw sugar import

ISLAMABAD (September 17, 2010): The federal government has decided in principle to waive the 25 percent Regulatory Duty (RD) on import of raw sugar to plug in the expected shortage next year. However, the quantity of raw sugar import is yet to be finalised, well-informed sources told Business Recorder.

SGA urges federal government to allow tax free import of raw sugar

LAHORE (September 17, 2010): Sugarcane Growers Association (SGA) Convenor Javed Malik has urged the federal government to act swiftly in the interest of consumers (common men) and allow tax free import of raw sugar to meet any possible shortage of sugarcane and stabilise the sugar prices in the open market.

Gold prices touch new peak

KARACHI (September 17, 2010): Gold prices continued to reach new peak of Rs 40, 550 per tola on the local market following a global market surge to $1273 an ounce on Thursday, traders said. Gold price crossed the last high of Rs 40, 275 per tola as market closed on new historic high with increase of Rs 275. Price of gold per 10 grams also hit a fresh high of Rs 34, 757 up from Rs 34,521 in a single day trading, traders said.

Sub-committee formed to finalise details of raw sugar import

ISLAMABAD: Ministerial Committee set up by economic coordination committee (ECC) on sugar Thursday formed a sub-committee to decide within a week the details of the quantity, timing and modus operandi of import of raw sugar for the season 2010-11.

Lint prices sustain upward rally

KARACHI: Lint prices continued to rise on higher demand by leading buyers while trading activities remained range bound with strong physical price at Karachi Cotton Association (KCA), traders said Thursday.

International News

Liffe sugar higher

LONDON (September 17, 2010): Liffe December white sugar ended $15.00 higher at $608.20 per tonne on Thursday, supported by worries over the impact of drought on Brazilian yields. Liffe December cocoa ended 31 pounds higher at 1,884 pounds a tonne. Market rebounding after falling to lowest level in more than one year earlier in the week but favourable outlook for crops in West Africa should keep a lid on prices.

New York sugar retreats

NEW YORK (September 17, 2010): Sugar futures retreated on profit-taking Thursday from a 6-1/2 month top in the face of a resurgent dollar after Japan weakened its currency for the first time in six years. The rest of the complex consolidated, with cocoa futures pressured by favourable prospects for crops in West Africa, the world's premier cocoa-growing region.

UK July wheat exports rise above 50 percent

LONDON (September 17, 2010): UK wheat exports during July, the first month of the 2010/11 marketing year, were 251,733 tonnes, up 52 percent from 165,636 tonnes in the same month last year, customs data showed on Wednesday. The total included an unusual sale of 58,314 tonnes to Vietnam. The only sale of UK wheat to a customer in Asia during the 2009/10 season was 49,500 tonnes to the Philippines.