Pro Farmer’s After the Close 11/8/10

Soybean futures favored a weaker tone today as traders evened positions ahead of tomorrow morning’s USDA reports. Soybeans closed 7 to 9 cents lower, with meal and soyoil seeing spillover support. Strength in the dollar also supplied pressure to the market, but gold posted a new all-time high today, giving the outside markets a mixed influence today. >>>>> More

Suddenly, Corn Costs More. Why Not Corn Flakes?

 
The price paid to farmers for a bushel of corn averaged $4.78 in October, up from $3.61 in the same month last year.
For months, prices paid to farmers for corn, wheat and soybeans have been shooting up. But so far, grocery prices have held steady for consumers. >>>>>>>>>> More

Soft Commodity Technicals by Reuters

 
WHEAT
SINGAPORE, Nov 8 (Reuters) – A bullish target at $7.61-¼    for the CBOT wheat December contract has been established, as an upward wave “c” is progressing.  >>>>>>>>>>>> More

Corn Technicals from Reuters

   

SINGAPORE, Oct 15 (Reuters) - CBOT December corn <CZ0> is technically neutral as it is trapped within a narrow range between $5.53 and $5.89 per bushel.

A rise above pivotal resistance at $5.89 could trigger a very explosive rally towards $6.20, as the current five-wave cycle will make up a bigger wave, and a new rally would be the stronger wave three.

A retracement from the current level could find strong support at $5.53, and will be limited to $5.37 should $5.53 fail to hold up the fall.

Corn Technicals from Reuters

 

SINGAPORE, Oct. 14 (Reuters) - The CBOT corn December contract <CZ0> is technically neutral as it is doubtful if the uptrend can continue.

Corn needs to stand above a pivotal resistance at $5.89 to confirm a more explosive rally towards $6.20. On the other hand, a break below the lower channel line and a possible completion of the wave "5" have dimmed the bullish outlook.

A fall below a minor support at $5.67 will limit its loss to the wave "4" trough at $5.54, as the retracement is expected to be shallow.

Corn Technicals from Reuters

SINGAPORE, Oct. 13 (Reuters) - The CBOT corn December contract <CZ0> could climb up higher towards a range between $6.20 and $6.30 per bushel, as an upwards wave "5" is progressing.

The rise from the Oct. 4 low at $4.54-¼   adopted a five-wave mode, with the fiercest part labeled as a wave "3" and a completion of wave "4" at the Tuesday low of $5.54-1/2.

A projection of the wave "5" target is at $6.20, according to a rising channel drawn through the peaks of wave "1" and wave "4", and the troughs of wave "2" and wave "4".

Support is at $5.65-1/2, a fall below which would extend its loss to $5.54-1/2

Corn Futures from Reuters

 

   

SINGAPORE, Oct 12 (Reuters) - CBOT corn's December contract is seen consolidating between $5.55 and $5.73 per bushel for one trading session before resuming a rally.

The consolidation is labeled as a wave "4" retracement, which may have completed at $5.55 - the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level on the rise from $4.95-¾   to $5.73-¼   - as the trend development of corn is characterised by shallow retracements.

A further fall below a minor support at $5.54-½   would extend to $5.43-½   - the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level.

Nebraska corn harvest down, but still at more than 1.5 billion bushels

While the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Friday that Nebraska's corn crop is down 4 percent from last year's record crop, there's plenty of corn to go around, said Kelly Brunkhorst, director of research for the Nebraska Corn Board.

Based on Oct. 1 conditions, the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service, Nebraska Field Office, reported Friday that this year's Nebraska corn crop is forecast at 1.51 billion bushels, down 1 percent from last month and 4 percent below last year's record high. Yield is forecast at 170 bushels per acre, nine bushels below last month and eight bushels below the record high set last year.

However, according to the USDA, both 2010 production and yield remain the second highest of record. Acreage for harvest was increased 350,000 acres to 8.9 million, 1 percent above a year ago.

While USDA did lower its yield estimate for Nebraska - down from its 179 bushels per acre estimate in September, Brunkhorst said reports from fields "make it clear that 179 bushels was perhaps too optimistic for the state this year."

"While we had pretty good weather overall in Nebraska, a couple of weeks of hot weather right after pollination may have taken the top off yields a bit," he said. "Yet 170 bushels per acre is pretty darn good, obviously, when you consider it's the second-highest ever."

Nationally, USDA estimated yields at 155.8 bushels per acre, below last year's record of 164.7. If realized, that would put the U.S. corn crop at 12.7 billion bushels. As forecasted, both those figures would be the third-largest on record, Brunkhorst said.

"While the yield reduction appears to tighten the corn market a bit, we're confident about the current supply picture," Brunkhorst said. "At the same time, we'll have good supplies of other corn products, including some 4.2 million tons of distiller grains being produced by Nebraska ethanol plants this year alone."

Friday's crop report also pushed agricultural commodities futures up, including corn, soybeans and ethanol.

John Anderson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, said the big drop in both the corn yield and production estimates in October's crop report caught the industry by surprise. "Folks were expecting to see a drop in average yields from last month's report because of poor late-season weather conditions across much of the Corn Belt, but nobody was forecasting this big of a drop in the corn crop," Anderson said.

Anderson said the smaller-than-expected corn crop and the lowest stock situation since 1995 prompted USDA to forecast a market year average cash price of around $5 per bushel - up 60 cents from last month's price forecast.

"Corn producers will welcome the higher price, but livestock and dairy producers will have to pay more than they expected to for feed," Anderson said.

Friday's report said that state soybean production is forecast at a record high 281 million bushels, 5 percent below last month but still 8 percent above the previous record set last year.

State soybean yield is forecast at a record high 55 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and 0.5 bushel above the previous high set in 2009. Area for harvest was decreased 250,000 acres to a record high 5.1 million, up 7 percent from 2009.

Nationwide, USDA said soybean production is forecast at a record high 3.41 billion bushels, down 2 percent from September but 1 percent above last year. Based on September 1 conditions, USDA reported that yields are expected to average a record high 44.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month but up 0.4 bushel from last year.

Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 76.8 million acres, down 1 percent from the previous estimate but up 1 percent from 2009, according to the USDA.

Statewide, the USDA also reported:

-- Sorghum production is forecast at 7.05 million bushels, up 15 percent from last month due to an increase in harvested acres. This production is still 46 percent below a year ago and the smallest since 1953. Yield at 94 bushels per acre is unchanged from the previous month but up 1 bushel from last year. Harvested acreage was increased 10,000 acres to 75,000 but down 46 percent from previous year and smallest since 1947.

-- Sunflower production is up 43 percent due to increased acreage and yield from a year ago.

-- Dry edible bean production is up 37 percent from last year due to more acres.

-- Sugarbeet production is down 19 percent from 2009, a result of fewer acres for harvest and a lower yield.

-- Alfalfa hay production is forecast to be 4 percent higher and all other hay production is unchanged compared to a year ago.

robert.pore@theindependent.com 

Published: Saturday, October 9, 2010 12:03 AM CDT

 

Corn tumbles after reports of plenty

Corn wavered after a sharp reversal from recent highs as traders reassessed how much of last year’s US crop lies in storage.

The price of the grain, widely used for animal feed and motor fuel, has fallen 11 per cent from a week ago, weakened by a US Department of Agriculture report showing domestic stocks were more plentiful than analysts had expected. This eased concerns that shortfalls this year would create a supply pinch in 2011. US exports make up about 60 per cent of the world’s corn trade.

The report, issued on Thursday, “completely changed the situation”, said Rich Nelson, director of research at Allendale, a commodities brokerage. 

CBOT December corn fell to as low as $4.54¼ a bushel Monday, down 2.5 per cent, before stabilising at $4.68. 

Analysts believe the USDA’s updated agricultural supply and demand outlook due Friday will reduce forecasts for average US corn yields from the current 162.5 bushels per acre. But the grain stocks report would cushion the market from all but a surprising drop in yield, Mr Nelson said. 

Other mainstream agricultural commodities have followed corn lower. CBOT December wheat fell 0.6 per cent to $6.51¼ a bushel, while CBOT November soyabeans lost 0.1 per cent to $10.56¼ a bushel. “Corn was the leg holding this table up,” said Mr Nelson. “It’s simply been removed very quickly.” 

Cotton continued to slide after hedge funds and other short-term traders unwound bullish positions in futures and options markets. 

Last week, cotton rose to a 15-year high above $1 a pound as mills rushed to secure supplies. It then dropped steeply, triggering daily exchange fluctuation limits on Wednesday and Friday. ICE December cotton on Monday was down 1.4 per cent at 96.67 cents a pound. 

Relieving some supply uncertainty, India has allowed registration of cotton shipments, pointing to an end to a cotton export ban declared earlier this year. China’s financial markets are also closed this week, suggesting muted buying from the world’s largest cotton consumer. 

“Last week got all the bullish news out. You have to continue to feed a bull,” said Mike Stevens, an independent cotton analyst in Louisiana.

Meanwhile, crude oil hovered above $80 a barrel, with Nymex November West Texas Intermediate falling 11 cents to settle at $81.47. ICE November Brent fell 47 cents to close at $83.28 a barrel after hitting £84.41, its highest level since May. 

Among base metals, copper and aluminium consolidated above key price levels even if both posted a small drop on the day. On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months fell 0.7 per cent to $8,040 a tonne while aluminium moved 0.3 per cent down to $2,340 a tonne. 

Tin prices, meanwhile, traded for the second day in a row within striking distance of the record of $25,500 a tonne set in early 2008. The metal hit $25,110 a tonne.

Gold prices tracked lower, failing to hit a new nominal record for the first time in six trading days. Spot gold was trading at $1,314.05 a troy ounce, down 0.2 per cent on the day. But the yellow metal is still up 13 per cent since late July.

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